Could Democrats really face a brokered convention?
Published 01-23-2020
For all the brokered convention talk four years ago surrounding candidate Trump and Republican chaos leading into the 2016 convention that never seemed to materialize, there’s been more and more whispers about the chances of Democrat’s facing exactly that in the 2020 contest.
Beyond chaotic, I think I described the 2016 Republican Primary field as a circus, and the Democratic Primary field has seemed to take that as a challenge, rather than a cautionary tale.
None of the speculation matters until a vote is cast in the primaries, and national polling for Presidential primaries is utterly useless for anything but messaging about electability.
But there are a few issues coalescing around this primary that causes me to pause when I’d normally dismiss the talk out of hand.
State poling suggests that regionally there is no clear front runner five months out from the convention. While the Republican establishment didn’t like it, Trump played the primary game, and played to his strengths. And for all of the sideshow, the Republican primary ran in a fairly orderly fashion. The Democrats have a bunch of “boutique” candidates that don’t play well across wide swaths of Democrats, let alone voters nationwide.
It’s pretty telling that party cohesion isn’t high when the New York Times endorses two candidates after their “rigorous endorsement process” and refused to actually make a decision.
The mainstream candidate, Vice President Joe Biden wasn’t one of the two, with the Time’s choosing Senator Amy Klobuchar at the moderate candidate.
Senator Elizabeth Warren also received the co-endorsement, as the Progressive choice for the Times Board.
The biggest issue the Democrats have... the candidates all have a problem.
Biden has a grift problem, Warren has an honesty problem, Buttigieg has a base problem, and Bernie has a socialist problem. Talk about a Fab Four.
I’m gonna have a popcorn problem by the end of this election season.
Conventional wisdom tells us the base rallies behind the front runner, what’s different this time?
Well, these candidates have bases that are already signaling not wanting to share a sandbox, let alone a platform.
And that’s before this impeachment saga has kept two front runners from early primary states. Day one of impeachment has brought news of Sander’s cancelling a rally in Iowa, opting for surrogate Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez to campaign for him in state over the weekend.
Speaker Pelosi’s decision to hold the impeachment hurt more than just her case.
At this point, smart investors should be investing in corn futures, because as the Democrats seem to be in disarray onto the stage waltzes Hillary Clinton, and the release of her four hour docuseries on Hulu. Well, she may as well of taken a flamethrower to the Presidential field while pouring gasoline on the Warren-Sanders feud which looked to be settling down for now.
Who’s the best poised to reap the rewards of a brokered convention?
I think there is more than a few pundits who think Hillary can ride in and save Democrats from themselves at the convention, righting the wrong that was the 2016 election and complete vindication. It’s about as fantastical as a Republican seriously challenging President Trump in the primary.
At a minimum, Tom Steyer and Mike Bloomberg have the money to stay in the race until the bitter end. Their ability to exponentially outspend their opponents has been a major storyline - combining to spend almost $400 million dollars on advertising. President Trump ranks 3rd with $41 million, Buttigieg ranks 4th with $26 million. Unfortunately, that spending hasn’t translated to a groundswell of support for the two billionaires, with Steyer qualifying for the debate, but alienating many more progressive voters in the process.
Like I said, I’m going to need popcorn. The circus is just getting going.
•••••••
Not to be outdone by the Presidential field, the curtains have raised on the Senate version of the Impeachment Circus. While I am not looking forward to having to listen to Congressman Schiff for hours on end, watching the President’s team of lawyers and the back and forth format of the proceedings has me admitting the television is back on in the background as I go about my day.
You know the Senate knows it’s been handed a bad hand when activists (and senators) have complained about their evenings being occupied by the hearings, trying to score political points of Republican dirty deeds in scheduling. The actual reason, the Chief Justice kind of likes to be present when cases are being argued before the Supreme Court, and they are in session this week. The Chief Justice scrambled his schedule to make it more convenient
It’s hard to take analysis seriously from all the talking heads when they repeat these kinds of talking points that come straight from the DNC and the Senate Minority leadership’s office.
I’m expecting much grandstanding by both Senator Schumer in these early hours of debate before the case goes to the Senate for presentation, and by House managers for the Impeachment. I expect pushback from the Republican House managers, all vocal members of the impeachment committees.
While the ending is pretty much a forgone conclusion, I expect more than a few popcorn moments from the halls of the Senate.